Are fake trends on X manipulating public perception in Türkiye? 

In his study "Ephemeral Astroturfing Attacks: The Case of Fake Twitter Trends," Dr. Tugrulcan Elmas reveals the alarming extent of fake trends on X in Türkiye. These manipulated trends, artificially promoted to the trending list, distort public perception and fuel political polarization.

With over 13 million active users, Türkiye is X's fifth-largest market globally, making it a prime target for such tactics. The country's already polarized political landscape further exacerbates the problem, as these trends can be used to manipulate public opinion and sway elections.

Fake trends are often created by social media agencies that openly advertise their services. For a fee, these agencies generate thousands of tweets filled with meaningless content to manipulate X’s trending algorithm. This practice distorts the digital public sphere and poses significant risks to the reliability of information on social media. By exploiting the platform’s algorithms, these actors create an illusion of public opinion on topics with little to no genuine engagement. 

Dr. Tugrulcan Elmas examines the impact of astroturfing in social media, showcasing key cases of fake Twitter trends in his study. (Infographic via Tugrulcan Elmas' study)

How fake trends on X work?

• Social media agencies: Fake trends in Türkiye are often driven by agencies offering trend creation services. These agencies can be easily found through a simple Google search and openly advertise their services. 

• Lexicon tweets: Attackers create trends using "lexicon tweets," which consist of random Turkish words and phrases that lack meaning and proper sentence structure. These tweets are designed to trigger the X algorithm into believing a topic is gaining traction. 

• Deleted tweets: Once lexicon tweets achieve the desired effect of pushing the topic into trending, they are quickly deleted, making it hard to trace the origin of the trend. 

Investigating fake trends on X

The research conducted an in-depth investigation using data from 2013 onward, identifying a large-scale operation to create ephemeral (short-lived) fake trends. 

Data collection: The research gathered data from two sources: 

• A comprehensive list of all trends in Türkiye since July 2013, updated every 10 minutes. 

• A collection of tweets from X’s public stream, including deleted ones, from September 2011 to September 2019. 

Pattern recognition: By analyzing this data, the research found that most fake trends followed the same pattern: 

• Tweets contained random, meaningless content. 

• The tweets were quickly deleted once the trend was established. 

Manual Review: The research manually reviewed 2,010 trend-date pairs, focusing on the first 10 tweets of each trend. If these tweets were deleted quickly and exhibited the lexicon pattern, the trend was marked as fake. 

Key findings 

• First instance: The first instance of an ephemeral fake trend in Türkiye occurred in June 2015. 

• Widespread use: By 2017, this method had become mainstream, with 182 trends identified as being created using lexicon tweets. 

• No organic trends with deletions: The research found no organically trending topics that exhibited the same deletion patterns as the fake trends. 

The infographic, part of Dr. Tugrulcan Elmas' study, examines the time window of the attacks of tweets. (Photo via ugrulcan Elmas' study)

Impact of fake trends 

Fake trends have far-reaching consequences. They mislead the public and distort the digital public sphere, undermining trust in social media platforms. In Türkiye, where political polarization is high and the media landscape is tightly controlled, social media serves as a critical outlet for free expression.

The manipulation of trends can sway public opinion, spread misinformation, and even influence election outcomes. It creates an illusion of public support or outrage over fabricated issues, making it difficult for users to discern genuine public sentiment. 

This manipulation also poses challenges for social media platforms like X. The automated systems designed to detect and remove spam are often ineffective against the sophisticated tactics used in these manipulation attacks. As a result, fake trends continue to proliferate, eroding the quality and reliability of information shared on the platform. 

Call for vigilance

Understanding and identifying fake trends is crucial for maintaining the integrity of social media platforms. While manipulation is a global issue, the scale and impact in Türkiye are significant. Users need to be aware of these tactics and platforms should improve their detection and removal systems to protect genuine public discourse.