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In its April edition of the World Economic Outlook report released Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly raised its growth forecast for Türkiye’s economy in 2024, from 2.6% to 2.7%.
Citing escalating trade tensions and rising policy uncertainty, the IMF lowered its global growth projections to 2.8% for 2025 and 3% for 2026. In its January forecasts, the IMF had projected global economic growth of 3.3% for both years.
The report noted that Türkiye's growth is expected to bottom out in 2025, before accelerating to 3.2% in 2026, supported by recent shifts in monetary policy. It also highlighted that these projected growth rates remain significantly below the historical average of 3.7%.
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The IMF forecasts Türkiye’s inflation at 35.9% for this year and 22.8% for next year, while projecting the unemployment rate at 9.4% and 9.2%, respectively.
Türkiye’s annual inflation stood at 38.1% in March, extending its downward trend for a tenth consecutive month, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Meanwhile, Türkiye's unemployment rate fell to 8.2% in February.
However, although Trump paused the levies for 90 days—excluding China—trade tensions have continued to escalate, negatively impacting financial markets.
The report stated, “The rapid escalation of trade tensions and the extremely high level of policy uncertainty are expected to significantly affect global economic activity.”
It further noted that global headline inflation is now expected to decline more slowly than previously projected in January, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, partly due to the inflationary impact of escalating trade tensions.
The IMF downgraded its 2025 growth forecast for the U.S. economy from 2.7% to 1.8%, and the 2026 forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%, citing growing policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and weakening demand momentum.
The Eurozone's growth forecast was also revised downward—from 1% to 0.8% for this year, and from 1.4% to 1.2% for 2026.
In the category of emerging markets and developing economies, the growth forecast for China was cut from 4.6% to 4% for this year, and from 4.5% to 4% for next year.
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